This article is free for anyone to read, but please consider becoming a Patreon subscriber to allow me to keep writing posts like this one. Sign up to receive articles like this one in your inbox here.
Remember back six or so weeks ago, when the Twins were expecting that they’d have new owners in place by Opening Day? Those plans might have changed, as the potential owner the current ones, the Pohlads, had been interacting with instead pulled out of the running. The reason? To increase their investment as minority owners in the White Sox.
Billionaire brothers Justin and Mat Ishbia were apparently the only ones that the Twins had engaged with to the point of their already being vetted by both the team and MLB, but they ended up choosing the White Sox, instead. This makes a couple of things clear: the Ishbias were considering buying the Twins because they were available, but apparently didn’t have a strong attachment to that franchise, specifically. A larger investment in the White Sox coming now tells us that the pair likely sees themselves as the future owners of that franchise: Jerry Reinsdorf is 88 years old, you know, and while he’s pure evil, it’s not like he’s immortal or anything. Probably.
Reinsdorf is also on the record as saying that the team “will be worth more out of town” after he dies, with his plan being that his son would put the White Sox up for sale in order to “do what’s best” for the other investors in the club. Coming to the conclusion that the Ishbias, who have shown a real interest in owning an MLB team, would have a real shot at the White Sox themselves whenever Reinsdorf either dies or quits isn’t a stretch.
The Twins might be in a better place than the White Sox now as far as organizational structure and promise goes, but Chicago is Chicago: it’s a significant media market large enough to be split between two MLB teams, and there’s real money to be made there for a club that actually bothers to do things like “try.” Even a little bit of trying would go a long way; the Ishbias wouldn’t have to go all Steve Cohen to get White Sox fans to love them, considering they’re replacing a wildly hated man who deserves every ounce of that dislike. They could probably settle in for some kind of Immortan Joe scenario and still end up ahead of the game compared to what came before.
As for the Twins, what’s next for them is unclear, since “pursue a sale with another interested party” and “pull the team off of the market entirely” were both floated as possibilities by reporters. Chances are good that they won’t have anything down in time for Opening Day, though, so Twins fans are stuck with the Pohland clan for at least a little longer.
What’s the Padres’ goal these days? It’s pretty unclear, given their behavior over the past two offseasons since the passing of principal owner and control person, Peter Seidler. While Peter pushed the team’s spending to the point that commissioner Rob Manfred called them out for it publicly — meaning, the other owners got together and whined about Seidler making them look bad for not spending, too, so Manfred had to go out there and attack in their place — his brothers have been more subdued. But not entirely ditching the plan to spend, either: last year’s Padres’ team still had an Opening Day payroll of $164 million with a competitive balance tax payroll of $227 million, and this year’s roster still projects to about $207 million for luxury tax purposes.
They spent almost the entire offseason avoiding adding any free agents, but then finally brought Nick Pivetta on board at four years and $55 million just last week. Curiously, it’s a heavily inconsistent deal in terms of pay outs: Pivetta will be paid all of $2.5 million in 2025, but then his salary shoots up to $20 million in 2026, then down to $14 million in 2027, and $18 million in 2028. The 2025 part is easy enough to solve, since it’s likely the Padres are still reeling and recalculating a bit from losing their television deal and Peter Seidler, but the fluctuations after that point are a little more difficult to parse.
There’s likely some deep accounting there — Dylan Cease and Luis Arraez are free agents in 2026, clearing nearly $28 million from the payroll, but then there are more arbitration-eligibles in 2027 in more expensive arb years, so knocking Pivetta back down would be helpful in that regard. It’s all a bit worrisome how much the successor Seidlers are agonizing over every dollar spent in this regard, but then again, the Padres did try to bring in some high-profile free agents this offseason still, like Roki Sasaki, so it’s not as if they’ve abdicated trying. They’re just being a bit more selective about the who and when and how much than they were.
It’s… not great. But it’s better than going back to the days when the payroll didn’t even crack $100 million, which wasn’t all that long ago in the grand scheme of things. It’s difficult to make a sweeping proclamation about the team’s endgame here — will they slowly shrink the payroll bit by bit until it’s more middle of the pack, or is this all a temporary dip while they wait for the next collective bargaining agreement and broadcast deal to clarify the kind of resources they’ll have? Getting under the luxury tax threshold, as they did in 2024, has obvious benefits for them as they attempt to replace lost revenue. A team that qualifies for revenue-sharing due to market size is not eligible if they’re also paying the luxury tax. If they turn around and use those funds to keep the team going, then that makes the wait for clarification more tolerable. If they get those funds and keep chipping away at the payroll to shrink it, though… well, then we’re back to “not great.” But we can at least wait and see how this plays out a bit in the long run.
Visit my Patreon to become a supporter and help me continue to write articles like this one.